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Initial thoughts on Trump’s election

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In our most recent letter, we suggested that Donald Trump is likely to lose the election because of his personality, but that his message has considerable appeal. Evidently, the majority of voters were sufficiently appealed by his message above all else, taking markets by surprise.

Broadly speaking, Trump’s policy proposals are populist but simultaneously very favourable to domestically-oriented businesses. The election will impact markets through three avenues: increased uncertainty, substantial changes to domestic policy, and potential disruptions to foreign relations and international trade arrangements.

The political risks of low growth

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The global economy is at an uneasy point. Slow growth remains the norm, while central banks appear to have hit a ceiling to what can be achieved through unconventional monetary policy. Against this background, we returned from the IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings with increasing concerns regarding the global outlook. This has less to do with shifts in economic fundamentals, but rather the shifting political landscape on both sides of the Atlantic, which has potential negative implications for economic policies globally.

Donald Trump’s candidacy is only one – albeit critically important – manifestation of the shifting political landscape. While recent polls suggest that he is unlikely to win the election, we are uneasy with the fact that he will lose because of his personality, rather than because his message is unappealing to voters. His nationalistic, anti-trade, anti-globalisation message has considerable appeal beyond the base of his supporters.