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China’s Bumpy Road Ahead


The ongoing slow-down of the Chinese economy is a phenomenon that is well anticipated in the markets. This fact, however, has not reduced the magnitude of apprehension regarding the implications of the slow down on financial markets and the global economy.

China has arguably reached the limits of what can be achieved through increasing investment


Over the past two years, bouts of market volatility have erupted over developments varying from industrial production data, trade data, the housing market, poor communication (and misunderstandings) of policy changes, and the decline in foreign exchange reserves. Most of these developments, however, can be neatly explained within the narrative of the rebalancing of the economy away from investment-led growth to more consumption-based economic expansion.

High Risk, Low Returns


Following a volatile start of the year, global concerns on recessionary outcomes have started to decline. Markets have recovered much of the losses experienced in the first quarter. This has not been very surprising to us. We have argued in the past months that indicators of economic softening are likely to be transitory, as key macroeconomic variables continue to point to a sustained economic expansion in almost all major econmies.

Markets have recovered much of the losses experienced in the first quater