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News

Seeking returns outside our core markets

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The global economy is experiencing a highly-synchronised acceleration of growth. The expansion is broad based, covering all major economies and regions. Despite the absence of inflationary pressures, the strength of US data has helped affirm the Fed’s monetary tightening trajectory. In Europe, it enabled the ECB to moderate its quantitative easing measures.

The sense of optimism over the weeks is pervasive. At the October IMF and World Bank meetings, for example, it was noteworthy that many participants saw the global risks as balanced. China, a long-standing source of much hand-wringing, was barely mentioned. One of the large fund managers, in which we are invested, sent out a note describing the outlook “as good as it gets.”

The risk of all this optimism is that it breeds complacency. Valuations are pricing in fair weather. In the US, current multiples are justified by earnings growth expectations, but can look expensive if earnings disappoint.

Reassessing our outlook for US rates

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Since November 2016 we have taken the view, that long term interest rates are set to rise. We believed the Trump administration would enact expansionary fiscal policies. With the economy near full employment and wage pressures rising, the stage was set for inflationary expectations to rise. At the same time the Fed’s policy is on a tightening cycle. Taken together, all these factors suggested that long term interest rates were bound to rise. Yet, not only has this not happened, but long term rates declined this year.

Long term bonds are sending a signal…