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News

The curse of uninteresting interest rates

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We start the fourth quarter of 2016 with the same questions we had one year earlier: When will the Fed resume raising interest rates? What is the likely path for short term rates? What is the long-term outlook for both short and long term interest rates? The answers to these questions are not simple, and were explored, though left largely unanswered, at the annual gathering of central bankers in Jackson Hole recently. What is clear, however, is that given the prevailing outlook for near and long term growth and inflation, real short term interest rates significantly above zero are unlikely for a long period of time. To consider the possible path of the Federal Funds Rate, it is useful to start by understanding the factors that drive the “equilibrium” or “neutral” level of interest rates. At its “neutral” level, the policy interest rate provides neither an expansionary nor a contractionary impulse to economic activity.

China’s Bumpy Road Ahead

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The ongoing slow-down of the Chinese economy is a phenomenon that is well anticipated in the markets. This fact, however, has not reduced the magnitude of apprehension regarding the implications of the slow down on financial markets and the global economy.

China has arguably reached the limits of what can be achieved through increasing investment

 

Over the past two years, bouts of market volatility have erupted over developments varying from industrial production data, trade data, the housing market, poor communication (and misunderstandings) of policy changes, and the decline in foreign exchange reserves. Most of these developments, however, can be neatly explained within the narrative of the rebalancing of the economy away from investment-led growth to more consumption-based economic expansion.