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Emerging Markets Bond Valuations Have Run Ahead of Fundamentals

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We have taken a positive view on Emerging Market debt for some time. Over the past few months, however, we tempered our enthusiasm as we balanced relatively attractive spreads against the implications of rising protectionism for trade-dependent economies. Market developments, however, are now leading us to change our view. Valuations have become less attractive, even if our concerns regarding the macroeconomic backdrop for many markets have subsided.

A benign macroeconomic environment


Are markets too optimistic about China?

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Just over a year ago, global markets were unsettled by concerns over China’s decelerating growth. Investors focussed on the mounting leverage in the economy. Commodity prices plummeted. Relatively minor (albeit abrupt) changes to the currency basket were viewed as precursors to a devaluation. Many fretted over the declining foreign exchange reserves, and believed that a “hard landing” of the economy was inevitable.

One year later, it appears markets have come to the opposite assessment. Economic growth surprised positively. Commodity prices rallied following some cuts in domestic supply. New prudential regulations, and a tightening of financial conditions, have been instituted to promote deleveraging in the financial system. Foreign exchange reserves increased following a tightening of capital controls. There is little talk of devaluation.