The past year has been as rewarding for investors as it has been confounding for analysts.  While economic growth weakened to its slowest pace since the global financial crisis, both equity and fixed income markets performed well. Market valuations sent contradictory signals regarding the outlook. An observer who has not followed markets closely might wonder if equities and bond markets are dominated by separate sets of investors that rarely commingle.

Buy a cheap asset, watch it appreciate, and then sell it. What sounds like a simple and intriguing recipe for investment success is probably one of the most complicated to implement.

In a recent meeting with a London based fund manager, an investment case was made for a macro bet to be made on the secular shift towards fiscal expansion in one of the countries most famed for their discipline and steadfastness in this area, Germany.