Buy a cheap asset, watch it appreciate, and then sell it. What sounds like a simple and intriguing recipe for investment success is probably one of the most complicated to implement.

In a recent meeting with a London based fund manager, an investment case was made for a macro bet to be made on the secular shift towards fiscal expansion in one of the countries most famed for their discipline and steadfastness in this area, Germany.

At Parkview, we are finding it increasingly difficult to justify an allocation to “Emerging Markets” as an asset class (EM). This isn’t a tactical change in position, but a structural change of view. There are both positive and negative developments that lead us to this change in positioning.  Over the next few quarters we plan to shift out of emerging market funds and to focus on only a few countries and regions where the investment case remains strong.