This question keeps being asked by the media and asset managers. In the past year, the asset manager of one major US bank published a note asserting that “China is still investable”, while the investment banking arm of the same bank asserted that China is not. One large ETF provider helpfully created an “emerging markets ex-China” ETF to cater to investors who do not believe China is investible. Banks and asset managers tend to answer this question differently depending on the extent to which they are invested in the Chinese market.

In short:

Over the past few months, we had been expecting the major economies to head into a recession. We also expected that the impact of shocks to the global economy, including supply chain disruptions and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, would begin to dissipate. Consequently, we expected inflationary pressures to begin receding.