In short:

·         A tough start to 2022 for equities, as real yields rise

·         In most other markets, things are calmer

·         The Fed outlines the process of tightening policy in 2022

Looking back at 2021, markets have performed as a textbook case study of an economic recovery. Equities performed strongly as valuations improved with strong earnings. Fixed income assets performed poorly as yields rose from very depressed levels. But there was nothing textbook-like about last year’s recession, the recovery, nor the ensuing cocktail of monetary and fiscal policies.

This note was written on 25 November 2021, before the Omicron variant was reported on widely. 

In short:

·         Inflation reaches 30-year highs, but has been a complex and evolving process

·         The Fed’s asset purchase tapering looks likely to be accelerated